How crazy are things in the world right now? Very, and we all can see it and feel. In times like these we need to have a sense of security and safety and nothing does that more for any of us than our homes. What does home mean for you? For me and my family it can mean a small cottage in old town Hillsboro. Or a shared historic home in the hills above Beaverton. Or even a nice apartment in the Orenco Station area. All and all we have lived experiences that cover all sorts of living. That is what makes me good at what I do- and the fact that I deeply care about all of my buyers and sellers, all of my long time clients who are investors, and those who have everything in between! From Million dollar estates to farms, and 1 BR Condos to Churches- Real Estate is what I do.
So what is happening in 2024? Rates are at their highest rates in a decade. Prices are at record highs or near record highs. Yet homes are still selling in 2 to 3 months, some much faster. Here is my take on what is really happening:
Photo Courtesy of Freddie-Mac https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
During the era from 2017 to 2022 Interest Rates were the lowest rates they had ever been in history. Millions of home buyers and investors grabbed homes with these low rates, which hit their bottom in 2021 at 2.75% for a few lucky people.
Those same Millions of buyers are now owners. Many may want to move, but will not abondon that house payment. Those that do leave to a new home are keeping these homes as investments.
The National Assocation of Realtors and Homebuilders, as well as many other analysts, have shown that the US housing market is decades behind on demand. To paraphrase the situation, here is where we are at:
Here is a home that the Dirk Knudsen Real Estate Team is closing on in 5-24 in Oregon
The United States faces a significant housing shortage, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and years of insufficient construction to keep up with a growing population. A recent analysis by Realtor.com estimates the shortage to be a staggering 7.2 million homes, emphasizing the urgent need for more housing construction. This shortage stems from a growing demand for housing that outpaces the rate of new construction. While the construction industry has seen a slight increase in new housing starts, it's not enough to bridge the widening gap between supply and demand.
Here in Washington, County, escpecially Hillsboro, Oregon, prices are staying strong. Some areas are at slightly higher prices year over year, and some are slightly lower. But the "market collapse" so many thought was coming when rates hit 7% has not come and appears to be nowhere in sight.
Days on market is longer- many home owners are leaving some room to negotiate (average of 1 to 1.5%).
Buyers waited for agressive prices by home sellers but they have not come. So now the name of the game is to get a good home, a good neighborhood, and settle in while waiting for the rates to come down.
Most mortgage and finance experts see rates coming down next year - inflation is just dug in with the long-tail effects of COVID still hurting the economy.
JOBS - Hillsboro, thanks mainly to INTEL, is ourperforming most other markets in the Pacific NW. As the jobs center of the State of Oregon, mighty Hillsboro is creating a pulse of home buying activity anywhere within 40 minutes away. Good homes in Hillsboro proper are a hot commodity and it appears there is no change coming but up!
Here are the stats as of 5/5/2024
Stats made possible by Altos Research and our Title support team at Fidelity Title https://altos.re/r/7e18269c-2f00-4496-a17a-bd622b274d32
Conclusion- When rates come down, it will be too late for homebuyers to land a home at prices where we are at now- and the bid ups and overbids we got used to for years will come back. Rent's are also rising out of control. Sellers are and will continue to stand strong but as of right now are working with buyers to find a fair value for all. The statistics show us that this Supply and Demand problem is not going away, and the reasons to buy a home still outweigh the reasons not to by a wide margin.
I represent sellers 70% of the time as one of the top listing brokers in Washington County. But I do work with motivated buyers and will work for you too. No matter if your buying or selling, it all starts with a phone call, a no-commitment meeting and property analysis, and a fit where we find the right ingredients to work together!
Thank you, and please stay well- I am aways at 503-799-8383.
Gratefully;
Dirk